2010). The simulated results agree with other studies on the Darss-Zingst peninsula (Lampe 2002, Milbradt & Lehfeld 2002, Froehle & Dimke 2008). Based on a successful validation, the model is used to project the morphological evolution of the Darss-Zingst peninsula during the next 300 years without consideration of any coastal protection measures. The effects of sea level rise and storm frequency on coastline change in the southern Baltic are quantified. Four different climate scenarios are designed, based on existing studies of climate change in the southern Baltic Sea or adjacent area (North Sea). All scenario runs use the same representative wind series described in section 3.1. The

differences among these runs are the parameterization of the storm frequency and the rate of sea level change. The first scenario (Scenario 1) assumes an average sea level AG-014699 chemical structure rise of 2 mm year−1 (Meyer et al. 2008).

The storm frequency in this run remains the same as the 50-year statistical results (i.e. an annual WNW storm and a once-every-5-years NE storm). Though there is little consistent evidence among different studies that shows changes in the projected frequency of extreme wind events at either a global or a regional scale (IPCC 2007), in order to quantify the effects of storms on the coastline change, an increase of the storm frequency by 20% (both for storms from the WNW and the NE) compared to the 50-year results is assumed in the second climate scenario (Scenario 2). A sea level MLN0128 ic50 rise of 2 mm year−1 is also parameterized in the second scenario. The third climate scenario (Scenario 3) assumes an average sea level rise of 3 mm year−1 according to the projection results (1990–2100) of the sea levels of the Baltic Sea described in Meier et al. second (2004). The storm frequency remains the same as the 50-year statistical results in the

third scenario. In the fourth climate scenario (Scenario 4) both the rate of sea level rise and storm frequency are increased (i.e. a 3 mm year−1 sea level rise and an increase in storm frequency by 20% compared to the 50-year data). The coastline change in most parts of the peninsula is accelerated compared to the change in the last 300 years owing to the sea level rise in Scenario 1 (Figure 9). An increment of 10–15 m per 100 years in the coastline retreat on the Darss coast is anticipated compared to the rates of the 20th century, whereas the coastline change on Zingst is more drastic with an increment of 20–30 m per 100 years. The headland is still growing in this period, but this tendency gradually slows down, partly due to the sea level rise, which counterbalances deposition to some extent, and partly due to the decrease in the sediment source, because some of the currents are directed into a new storm-generated channel in the middle part of Darss. There are two channels in the Bock area nowadays – one between Zingst and Bock and the other between Bock and Hiddensee.